230 PM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
/229 PM CST WED FEB 8 2012/

WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS 
TURNS TO TEMPS. 

SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURS. A WEAK S/W 
WILL DROP S TONIGHT TO HELP SPREAD ENUF CLOUD OVER THE AREA TO 
SUPPRESS FG THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT SN AND MELTING THRU 
THE DAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FG OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY MOIST 
BOUNDARY LAYER. 

SLY FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA THURS MORNING. HAVE 
THEREFORE TRENDED TWD WARMER GUIDANCE THRU TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WARM 
TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A CDFNT IS PROGD TO MOVE THRU THE CWA 
FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TWD COOLER MOS FOR THE 
NRN HALF OF THE CWA ON FRI AND CONSENSUS ELSEWHERE. MDLS AGREE WELL 
WITH TIMING OF FROPA...BUT SHUD STILL SEE SOME HEATING BEHIND THE 
FNT WITH CLEAR SKIES. WITH A VERY LARGE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE 
REGION BEHIND THIS FNT...HAVE TRENDED AOB THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUE INTO THE EXTD PERIOD. 

FOR PRECIP...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR SRN TIER OF 
THE CWA AS A SRN STREAM S/W PULLS MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. 
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FNT...BELIEVE ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN S OF 
THE CWA. STILL...ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE IF FNT IS SLOWER THAN 
ADVERTISED. 

FOR THE EXTD...COOL TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN...THO WITH SOME 
DIFFERENCES IN MDL GUIDANCE...GOING FCST MAY STILL BE A COUPLE OF 
DEGREES TOO WARM. WARM UP SHUD BEGIN MON AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF 
TO THE E. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER. 

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING TROF WITH A LEADING S/W 
SPREADING PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON MON INTO MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...MDLS 
DISAGREE REGARDING P TYPE. THE ECMWF/GEM SOLNS ARE COLDER ALOFT AND 
SUGGEST SN. THE GFS KEEPS H85 TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA...WITH SFC TEMPS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN 
THE VERY COLD AIR THAT SHUD BE IN PLACE...BELIEVE THE MDLS ARE 
MOVING THE SFC RIDGE OUT TOO FAST. FOR NOW...HAVE A MIX OF RA/SN 
GOING IN THE FCST AND WILL ADJUST AS MDLS COME INTO AGREEMENT. 

BEYOND MON...TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE 
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS 
ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS 
EVENT UNTIL MDLS COME INTO AGREEMENT.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1138 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012/

CIGS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
IFR CIGS ANCHORED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
THROUGH THE STL METRO AREA AND TO MID MISSOURI THIS MORNING HAVE
IMPROVED TO MVFR...AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. CLEARING WILL BE HINDERED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING
TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH WHEN CLEARING DOES
OCCUR...FOG AND LOWER CIGS COULD FORM. ATTM EXPECT
KSTL...KSUS...KCPS..AND KCOU TO FEEL THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM ANY
POTENTIAL FOG...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE FOR KUIN. OVERALL FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER ASSESSED DURING UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...REMAINING
FAIRLY LIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

CIGS REMAIN TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS SEEM
TO BE HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE HANDLING THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK.
RIGHT NOW...CIGS AFFECTING THE METRO AREA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BECOMING VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND CLEARING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. LOW
MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH IFR FOG POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS AND ALONG AREA RIVERS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THOUGH THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD BE ANCHORED WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE STL METRO TAF SITES THURSDAY...THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING CLOUDCOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS.

JP

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

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